We’re back baby. One week out from the start of the Premier League season. And off the back of a brilliant, if a little problematic, World Cup. Last time out, Arsenal finally overcame the curse of second place (a rare prediction I actually got right from last year’s version of this blog), Sunderland and Leeds silenced the doubters with strong returns to the top flight, and Tottenham nearly got relegated… again.
What has this year’s iteration got in store for us? Hopefully, a little more focus on attacking football, and a little less on grappling at set-pieces. Some of the Premier League games last year were borderline unwatchable at times, and the game seemed to have regressed back to a former era, but football is nothing if not eternally evolving, and so with some stronger refereeing and new tactical innovations from the managers, here’s to hoping that 2025-26 was a bit of a one-off.
It’s also the first Premier League in ten years not to feature Pep Guardiola, which means we are almost certainly due for a transitional few years until a new team and manager emerges as the league’s new dominant force (look at the years after Sir Alex retired; three different winners in four years and one was Leicester!)
Anyway, enough of the foreplay. Let’s get down to the predicting…
20th– Hull City
Derby County’s infamous record low points tally of a measly eleven points has now stood for twenty years. And in the spirit of starting strong, I’m going out on a whim and saying this is the year it is finally beaten (if that’s really the right word).
Hull look to me like the weakest Premier League side we’ve seen for some time. And that’s partly due to the extraordinary and fortunate circumstances that led to their unlikely promotion, where the team they would have faced (Southampton) ruined their chances of going up thanks to their manager’s fondness for having someone lurk by a tree next to his opponent’s training ground, whilst the team they did face (Middlesbrough) had to cope with the psychological double-whammy of losing their semi-final and then having only a few days to prepare for the final once the result was overturned.
More pertinent though is that their underlying numbers in the Championship were actually really poor, ranking as low as 23rd for XG difference. The anti-XG brigade will see this as further proof that the much-maligned metric actually means nothing, but the truth is that these things do tend to even out, and hence catch up with you, over a period of time. All the evidence is there that Hull are going into a division they really shouldn’t be playing in, with a squad and manager lacking any top-flight experience. Derby fans, it could finally be the year.
19th– Ipswich Town
In terms of squad quality, Ipswich have a much better chance of staying up than Hull do, but their biggest blow came after their promotion back to the Premier League, when their manager Kieran McKenna stepped down. McKenna has been absolutely central to everything the Tractor Boys have done over the last five years, and his loss is a sore one.
His replacement, Gary O’Neil, does have recent experience in the division and is probably a bit underrated after his work at Bournemouth and Wolves, but they are some seriously big shoes to fill. I think they’ll put up a good fight, and get around the thirty-point mark, but as we saw last year, that may not be enough for survival.
18th– Coventry City
I really hope I’m wrong with this one. Not just because it’s always boring when the three promoted clubs go straight back down, but because my childhood hero Frank Lampard leading Coventry back to the promised land after twenty-five years is the feel-good story of this season.
A bit like O’Neil, Lampard has always got more stick than was fair for his managerial career so far, and does have experience in a relegation battle after his stint with Everton, but I fear his squad may suffer from the intangible gap that exists between ‘good championship player’ and ‘solid Premier League performer’, with too many falling in the former category.
In truth, the reality is the Premier League is just incredibly hard to survive in these days. Last year, Wolves and West Ham looked vulnerable right from the start, but I don’t see any existing teams who look as weak as them this time around. So, with a heavy heart, I think it may be a fleeting visit for Super Frank and Cov on their long-awaited return to the big time.
17th– Fulham
Of the remaining teams, there is one who look more susceptible than most to being dragged into the relegation scrap, and that’s Fulham. The Cottagers have enjoyed a healthy stint in the top-flight in recent years, thanks mainly to the astute management of Marco Silva, who frankly always over-performed with the resources he had at his disposal.
Now Silva is gone, and his replacement raised a few eyebrows in Alvaro Arbeloa, whose only previous management experience was overseeing the complete self-implosion that was Real Madrid’s second half of last season. He’s brought in a couple of fellow former Madridistas in Gonzalo Garcia and Enrique Palacios, but it’s a big ask for them to replace established Prem quality like Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez.
I’m confident in saying Fulham will drop places from last year’s respectable eleventh-placed finish; the question is how many?
16th– Sunderland
This is going to be the first of a few predictions that follow a similar theme, and that theme is the double-edged sword of qualifying for European football. Sunderland had a miraculous season last year, proving a lot of people wrong (myself included) who tipped them for relegation, and instead reaching the Europa League, with an astonishing seventh-placed finish.
However, we have seen over recent years that the less-established teams who get into Europe tend to struggle the following year, due to the unfamiliar demands of playing Thursday-Sunday for much of the season, and also because of the inevitable prioritising of the European competition if they get to the latter stages.
Added to that, Sunderland have done a Nottingham Forest, betting the house on survival in their first year back with a huge spending spree last summer, and have subsequently had to shut the chequebook this summer to avoid falling foul of PSR, so far only signing Thomas Meunier on a free. I don’t think they’ll go down, but I think there’ll be a sizable reality check for the Black Cats after their achievements last time out.
15th– Crystal Palace
You could literally copy and paste a lot of the previous entry and apply it to Palace as well. The only difference with them is they should be more used to playing twice a week, after winning the Conference League in May to give them a shot at the Europa this time.
Further complications come in that they’ve lost their greatest ever manager, Oliver Glasner, and replaced him with the little-known Pierre Sage. We’ve had over ten years of Palace in the Prem, so we sort of know what we’re going to get by now. If they start badly, they’ll replace Sage with a solid defensive specialist (Sean Dyche or Thomas Frank probably), go on a decent run to steer clear of trouble, and ultimately end up lower mid-table. Why fix what ain’t broken after all?
14th– Leeds
Onto the first team who I think will be looking up rather than down this season, and that’s Leeds United. Sunderland’s remarkable story sort of overshadowed Leeds’ own steady return to the Premier League, but after Daniel Farke changed formation away to Man City, they never really looked back.
And unlike the three teams I’ve just put below them, they come out of this transfer window stronger than they went into it, solving a long-term goalkeeping issue by signing James Trafford from City, adding proven prem quality in Harry Wilson, and making a classic World Cup-influenced signing of the Bosnian centre-back, Tarik Murahemovic.
14th sounds about right, as I think there are teams with more overall quality to come, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a push for a top-ten finish.
13th– Everton
Everton have finished thirteenth for the previous two seasons, and I’m backing them to make it a hat-trick. They seem a club who are anchored in mediocrity, lacking the ambition to kick on and push for Europe, but also with too much nous to get sucked into the relegation dogfight.
What would really go down well with their fans is a cup run, as they have a truly horrific record in both domestic cup competitions in recent years, and it’s a stick that’s regularly used to beat David Moyes with, as he is accused of fielding weakened line-ups and generally acting as if he doesn’t care about the cup games. A run to the semis, and maybe a cheeky Wembley day out, would go a long way towards sweetening what is likely to be another mid-table slog in the league.
12th– Newcastle
Has anyone had a worse summer than Newcastle? Following hot on the heels of the Isak saga last year, they have managed to lose their manager, Eddie Howe, along with probably their three best remaining players in Gordon, Bruno Guimaraes and Tonali.
It’s all gone sour very quickly after a few thrilling years following the Saudi takeover, culminating in that Carabao Cup win. Now, they look a team without a clear direction, with a coach in Matthias Jaissle, who is highly thought-of but unproven at the top level, and a squad with a few glaring holes in it.
I expect them to be busy around the transfer deadline, but I think they’ll face a very difficult start, before Jaissle can properly embed his tactical ideas and the team can gel, with them then picking up after Christmas. The problem is they’ve now been leapfrogged by lots of other teams with big ambitions, so I think a second-consecutive twelfth place is on the cards for the Geordies.
11th– Bournemouth
Bournemouth are probably the success story of the last couple of years, matching smart recruitment with a clear and effective playing style to punch well above their weight, peaking with last year’s sixth-place finish and qualification for the Europa League.
However, the biggest factor in this transformation was Andoni Iraola and he has left for Merseyside. Marco Rose seems a good fit style-wise as his replacement, but how their high-intensity pressing game translates to playing twice a week is a big question.
In truth, the next four teams are pretty interchangeable, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bournemouth push for the European places once more. Like Sunderland and Palace though, it could well be a case of sacrificing league position for a deep run in Europe, and I’m sure their supporters would all happily settle for that.
10th– Brighton
This prediction hinges on one thing, and that is that Brighton will win the Conference League and hence qualify for the Europa League anyway. As West Ham and Palace (and yes technically Chelsea) have shown, the Conference League is a golden opportunity for English teams to win European silverware, and Brighton should go all out to bring home what would be the biggest trophy in their history.
Had they not been in that competition, I’d have put them higher here, as I think they’re typically going under the radar, and have once again made some smart signings this summer. Under Fabian Hurzeler, they’ve become quite streaky, often going on winless and then winning runs of ten games or more within the same season. With a bit more consistency, they should trouble the big hitters, but similar to Bournemouth, I think having competing priorities at the end of the season will allow others to edge ahead of them in the league.
9th– Nottingham Forest
Speaking of going under the radar, Forest seem to be being severely underestimated in a lot of the pre-season predictions that I’ve seen, with some having them in a relegation battle, which I personally don’t understand.
I know that for most of last season they were a disaster, but that was mainly due to the stupidity of their owner. When they actually get out of their own way, Forest are a good Premier League side and it’s only been two years since they finished seventh, with not a massively different squad to the one they have now.
Plus, they’ve added Oliver Glasner as manager, and he has proven his quality with Palace. Unlike many of their rivals, they don’t have European football to deal with, and so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Glasner gets this team firing consistently again and they return to the upper echelons of the division.
8th Brentford
This feels like the moment that Brentford need to seize their opportunity and qualify for European football for the first time in their history. Their fellow trendy over-achievers, Brighton and Bournemouth, have already done it, and for the first time in a while, it feels like they haven’t really lost any key players during the summer.
A lot will rest on whether Igor Thiago can replicate his 20-goal season from last year, but if he can, there is no reason why the Bees shouldn’t be looking at the challenges faced by their rivals and thinking they’ll never get a better chance to reach that elusive European stage.
7th– Tottenham Hotspur
I know, I’m doing it again. I actually predicted Spurs to be one higher than this last year, and ended up being wrong by a whopping eleven places. However, there are genuine reasons for the beleaguered Spurs fans to feel a bit more optimistic about the upcoming campaign. For one, they’ve splashed the cash like never before, bringing in proven Premier League players like Van Hecke, Tonali and Fernandes.
For another, we are entering Roberto De Zerbi’s peak period at a club, where his tactical style and demanding man-management actually provokes a positive response, before it inevitably ends in tears later down the line. I think Spurs will come out of the traps flying this year, a bit like their first season under Big Ange, but also, because ‘Lads it’s Spurs’, they’ll inevitably fall just short of the big boys in the end.
6th– Aston Villa
And now we come to the “Big Six.” The actual Big Six, because Aston Villa have shown that, under Unai Emery, they are far more deserving of being in that group than Tottenham. Emery might be the best manager in the entire division, now that Pep is gone, and he will continue to get the best out of his squad, even when competing with richer rivals.
Their problem as ever is replacing big players, with Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans moving to the aforementioned richer rivals this summer. Johan Manzambi and Joao Gomes seem like decent replacements, but not quite at the same level, and then there’s Alejandro Garnacho…
I expect them to be in the mix all the way, but I think they benefitted last year from the failings of a weaker Liverpool and a catastrophic Chelsea, whereas I expect both to be much better this time. So Villa just to miss out on the Champions League places, and have to settle for Europa instead. Not the worst outcome, as Emery will probably win that the following year anyway!
5th– Liverpool
Of the established big-hitters, it is Liverpool who have had the most uncertain summer, and who come into the season with the most question marks hanging over them. Firstly, it is Slot out, Iraola in, at Anfield, and that will inevitably mean a tactical transition of sorts and potentially some teething problems. Don’t forget Iraola didn’t win any of his first nine games with Bournemouth…
Secondly, their squad looks like it is lacking in some key positions. Mohamed Salah is gone, and whilst a player of his stature would be practically impossible to replace, they haven’t signed a left-winger of any description, so there looks to be a pretty big hole in their team sheet at the moment.
More than anything, this just feels like a team at the end of its era. Van Dijk is not quite the unplayable defender he once was, Allison is injury-prone, and their midfield lacks energy at times. I think Iraola will eventually come good at Liverpool, but I have my suspicions it could be an awkward and difficult first year.
4th– Manchester United
Manchester United feel like one of the toughest teams to call this year. Michael Carrick did brilliantly to steer them to third place after the debacle that was Ruben Amorim’s tenure at the club, but he did so with a team that only had to play 40 games- the very minimum that it was possible to play, so it was easy for them to focus on the league.
The scepticism comes from the fact that they’ve already been down this route with Ole Gonnar Solskjaer- handing the caretaker manager the permanent job off the back of a few positive results. Does it actually work out in the long run? The jury is very much still out.
I also know that a few United fans are frustrated that the club never seem to kick on from a rare position of strength. Only Tielemans and Andrey Santos have been brought in to boost the first-team, and neither really set pulses racing. There is something to be said for stability, especially when so much is changing around them, but I just can’t see United bettering last year’s finish right now, and that will feel like yet another missed opportunity.
3rd– Chelsea
It cannot be stressed just how bad Chelsea were last season, but also how self-inflicted the whole thing was. The Enzo Maresca era ended messily, and he won’t be the most popular visiting manager when he brings his City side to the Bridge, but the appointment of Liam Rosenior as his replacement was only ever going to end one way: complete and utter disaster.
Having said all of that, the board have finally showed some signs of learning from their mistakes this summer. Not only have they appointed Xabi Alonso as manager (not first team coach) which feels like a massive coup, but they’ve signed players with experience in Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck and don’t seem to be randomly stockpiling youngsters like in previous years.
Plus, like United last year, Chelsea have no European distractions to worry about, which will give Alonso extra time on the training ground to instil his way of playing. The optimist in me says title challenge, the pessimist says Alonso will be gone by Christmas and we’ll have poor old Calum McFarlane back for his tenth spell as caretaker by the end of the season. The optimist just about wins, and hence I’m going with third place.
2nd– Manchester City
Speaking of Enzo Maresca, the former Chelsea manager now has the unenviable task of following the greatest manager of all time in the dugout at Manchester City. The common consensus is that this will go one of two ways: the Slot way or the Moyes way, which are the two scenarios that have occurred when titanic figures have left big clubs.
I think it’s more likely to go the Slot way, as City still have a ridiculous squad, with talent in basically every position, and having the world’s best goalscorer up front doesn’t hurt. However, I think a lot hinges on the possible departure of Rodri to Barcelona. If he goes, I don’t think they can win the title, as evidence has shown he is absolutely integral to their entire way of playing.
1st– Arsenal
So, after basically giving a reason why every other possible challenger can’t win the title, Arsenal get first place kind of by default. I do not think they are one of the great sides that we’ve seen, and I genuinely think that stricter refereeing on corners could rob them of at least a quarter of their goals from last year.
However, they have also finally got the monkey off their back when it comes to winning the title, and this might allow them to play with more freedom going forwards. Defensively, they’re on another level compared to every other team which is a huge advantage, and it doesn’t feel like any of their main competition have got stronger, so the league is very much theirs to lose, and I have a feeling they may well be retaining it come May.
George F Brown 