One week to go until football is back. Which means we’re in prime prediction season. And, whilst I think I say this at the beginning of every season, it really does feel like it could be an exciting and unpredictable one, after last year’s comparatively underwhelming campaign. The Premier League is at its best when it has a genuine season-long title race, when the three promoted sides are able to compete immediately, and when as many teams as possible stay in European contention. We only got one out of three last year. Here’s hoping for a jackpot this time around.
I’d like to throw in the disclaimer that this is being done ahead of the first game, and therefore with three weeks of the transfer window still remaining. As it stands, Alexander Isak is not a Liverpool player, Everton, Newcastle and Chelsea (of course) still seem like they have lots of business left to complete, and Fulham seem to have forgotten there is a transfer window open at all.
So, here we go. Some of these will hopefully be bang on the money, some will at least be along the right lines, and some will look like absolute howlers come May (I did predict Nott’m Forest to finish 20th last year…). It’s all part of the fun!
20th– Burnley
From the glory days of prime Dycheball, Burnley have now seemingly become the new Norwich, doomed to be an eternal yo-yo club. Of the three promoted sides, they’ve had by some distance the worst window. Their promotion was built on a record-breaking defence, but they’ve lost two crucial pillars of that in goalkeeper James Trafford and centre-half CJ Egan-Riley. They also seem to have ticked off all the classic promotion “no-no’s”: Signing over-the-hill legends (Kyle Walker); Big Club rejects (Broja, Ugochukwu) and loan signings who looked good in the Championship but aren’t Premier League quality (Marcus Edwards, Jaidon Anthony). They have rock-bottom written all over them.
19th– Sunderland
It is a testament to the business Sunderland have done this summer that I haven’t put them last. In fact, when they won that dramatic play-off final, they looked like the biggest threat to Derby’s record low points total of 11. They needed to invest to have any chance whatsoever and the signings of the likes of Xhaka, Adingra and Reinildo look like shrewd business. They still look way short of having enough to actually survive, but at least they look like they’ll put up a decent fight.
18th– Leeds
I hate doing this, but I refused to predict the three promoted sides going straight back down in the last two years and look how that turned out. The gap is just so gigantic these days, that it feels like it would take a complete self-implosion from one of the established seventeen clubs for them to be dragged down into a relegation spot. Leeds look like they have the best chance of breaking the trend, but they may have been better off sacking the man who got them promoted, Daniel Farke, given his abysmal Premier League record. I’d be amazed if he lasted the season, but it’s a question of who replaces him and how much ground they will have to make up, which will dictate whether Leeds will survive.
17th– Brentford
It’s not quite a self-implosion, but Brentford are seemingly trying their hardest to give the promoted teams a fighting chance this year. Their charismatic manager, Thomas Frank, has left for Spurs and they’ve sold their captain, Norgaard, their best player, Mbeumo, and seemingly are resigned to losing another 15-goal striker in Wissa. I really don’t understand the appointment of Keith Andrews as their new manager; the standard of managers in the Premier League is now so high that I don’t think you can take a chance on a complete novice anymore. Again, I’d be amazed if he was still there in May.
16th– West Ham
The importance of timing in football has never been so clear as in the case of West Ham. This time last year they had the chance to rebuild an ageing squad and implement a shift in style after the departure of David Moyes. They handed a significant transfer war chest to new manager Julen Lopetegui and sporting director Tim Steidten. Neither made it to the end of the season. Twelve months on, West Ham are now short of cash, and the manager they probably should have appointed in the first place, Graham Potter, is stuck with a squad woefully ill-equipped for his style of football. Honestly, if they didn’t have their talisman, Jarrod Bowen, I could see the Hammers going down.
15th– Wolves
As they seem to do most years, Wolves have had a low-key summer. They lost their best player in Matheus Cunha, but that was at least gotten out of the way very early, so there’s been plenty of time to reinvest. His likely replacement is Jhon Arias, who needs to hit the ground running. The reason I’ve ranked Wolves above the previous two is simply the stronger relationship between manager and fan base. Whereas Andrews and Potter look like early sacking contenders, Vitor Pereira still has momentum on his side following his brilliant end to last season. That could be enough to keep their heads above water once again.
14th– Nott’m Forest
Okay, time for the first rogue shout. Forest were undoubtedly the story of last season, going from relegation candidates to competing for Champions League football in a genuinely sensational turnaround. However, there were signs that teams were working out their direct, counter-attacking style towards the end of the last campaign and this year they will have Thursday-Sunday football to contend with, which has so often been the kiss of death for over-achieving sides. At some point in the latter stages of the season, they’ll have to sacrifice the weekend games to focus on big European ties, and I think that’ll cause them to drop into mid-table mediocrity.
13th– Fulham
Yearly readers of these predictions will know I have a habit of underestimating Fulham. It is a testament to Marco Silva that he has now established the Cottagers as a steady, mid-table Premier League team, given the fact they don’t have any stand-out, superstar players. However, the lack of activity this summer has been stark and the cliché is that the second you start standing still in the Premier League, you start falling fast. They’ll be fine, but any lofty ambitions of Europe look a million miles away right now.
12th– Bournemouth
Bournemouth have become the latest club to learn the harsh consequences of over-achieving in modern football. Their best players have been snapped up by Europe’s big boys, and they now look weaker, right at the moment they arguably needed to strengthen, in order to close the gap to the top four/five. Their high-intensity playing style under Iraola will ensure they will remain one of the league’s trickiest away trips, but it also seems to fall away as the season goes on. You fear 9th last year may have been their ceiling.
11th– Crystal Palace
The easiest prediction year in, year out. Palace will have something different to contend with this year at least, with their first European campaign ever after their momentous FA Cup win, even if it’s not in the competition they wanted (or earned) after the controversial UEFA punishment for breaching multi-club ownership rules. If they do end up in the Conference League, then they should go all out to win it. Glasner is a cup specialist and English teams have such an advantage over the rest of the field in UEFA’s third-tier tournament. As for the league, well, somewhere between 12th and 10th, because that’s what happens EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.
10th– Everton
After what has been a truly miserable five years, Everton finally have renewed hope. They have a shiny, new stadium (with a truly horrific name), a returning legend as manager in David Moyes, and some money to spend at last after the Friedkin Group takeover. Progress has been slow on the transfer front, and Moyes has publicly voiced his concerns, but the signings they have made look promising and if they can land a true statement signing like Jack Grealish, then they should be aiming for a first top-ten finish since Carlo Ancelotti was in charge (still can’t believe that actually happened!)
9th– Manchester United
For Manchester United, surely, surely this season cannot be any worse than the last. From the wreckage of a truly dismal 15th place finish, they have recruited a couple of proven Premier League attackers in Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, and could be adding a new striker in Benjamin Sesko on top of that. That should certainly solve their lack of goals problem at least, but with United these days, there are just too many problems to fix in one go. Their midfield and defence are still made up of the same players who have consistently underperformed for years. They will be better for sure, but I still think they’re behind the following eight teams, and I can’t see them closing that gap in one summer.
8th– Brighton
Brighton had such an underrated season last year. In what was meant to be a transitional year, they ended up with only one point less than their record tally, and yet there was a sense of disappointment within their fanbase, with the lows of the 7-0 thrashing at Forest possibly being more memorable than the highs, and therefore skewing perception. However, unlike the other teams around them (Bournemouth, Brentford) Brighton have kept hold of all their key players (It was their decision to sell Joao Pedro) and Fabian Hurzeler will have learnt a lot from his first season in the Premier League. If they can find some consistency and stop dropping points against the relegated sides, they could be the biggest threat to the established order this year.
7th– Aston Villa
Villa had one of the great ‘nearly’ seasons last year. Eliminated by eventual winners PSG in the Champions League Quarter-Final, upset by Palace in the FA Cup semi-final, and denied a Champions League place by a controversial refereeing decision on the final day. Their PSR worries have ensured they’ve had to stop their recent heavy spending, but as it stands, they also seem to have kept hold of everyone as well. Honestly, the reason I don’t have them higher is because I think they should, and will, prioritise the Europa League. Unai Emery is the master of that competition, and it’s actually an easier route into the Champions League these days (just ask Spurs!)
6th– Tottenham Hotspur
Speaking of Spurs, they are officially the hardest team to predict this year. I mean, how the hell do you balance a 17th place disaster with the fact they won a European trophy?! And on top of that, they’ve replaced Big Ange with Thomas Frank, so it feels like another reset moment for them. I really rate Frank, and he has long deserved a chance at a bigger club, but Spurs have proven an enigma even Europe’s greatest coaches couldn’t solve. He’s got the core of a good squad, with the likes of Kulusevski, Solanke and Van De Ven at his disposal. There are so many potential outcomes here, but the one I think is most likely is that Frank returns Spurs to their traditional role on the fringes, and ultimately just short, of the Champions League places.
5th– Newcastle United
Oh, Newcastle. They are surely having the single worst transfer window of all time. From the highs of their first trophy win in 70 years and a return to the Champions League, as well as finally being free of the PSR constraints that have hampered them over the last year or so. At the exact moment they seemed ready to go up a level, they have ended up losing out on at least five major transfer targets, and their best player, Alexander Isak, has also made it clear he wants to jump ship too. Why have I still put them fifth then? Well, even though there is now a chasm between themselves and the four sides above them, none of their major rivals for fifth place have notably strengthened. When Isak does eventually go, they’ll surely have 100 million to spend on one, or more likely two, replacements, whilst their midfield trio, which is their biggest strength, remains in place. Frankly, at this rate, they’ll just be happy to see the window shut, so Eddie Howe can purely focus on the football again.
4th– Chelsea
Three years into the BlueCo project, things finally seem like they are coming good for Chelsea. I was sceptical about the appointment of Maresca and he had a major wobble in the middle of last season, but fourth place and two trophies at the end of his first year in charge was a great achievement. As ever, there’s been another major squad shake-up this summer, but there is finally a strong spine emerging in the side with the likes of Colwill, Cucurella, Caicedo, Fernandez and of course Cole Palmer starting to peak. The performance against PSG in the Club World Cup final has even given me faint hopes of a genuine title challenge, but I’m going to try and be rational and accept that we’re probably still lagging behind the other ‘Big 3’ sides. Getting closer to them and aiming for an 80+ points tally would represent further progress this time around.
3rd– Manchester City
This feels like the first time in a very long time that we’re going into a season without Manchester City as firm title favourites. Last year was the season that time finally caught up to one of the Premier League’s greatest ever sides, and whilst it wasn’t a complete disaster in the end, the drop-off from their usual standards was enormous. They’re undergoing a much-needed rebuild that started early in January, with new signings Cherki, Reijnders and Ait-Nouri adding to an already stacked squad. The question with City is simply how quickly Pep Guardiola will rediscover his mojo and transform them back into the division’s best. With Rodri back from his ACL injury, it does feel like a case of when and not if, but I’m gambling they’ve got at least one more year of transition before they become winners again.
2nd– Liverpool
This is the prediction I’m least sure of. Everything points to Liverpool winning a second consecutive title, given that they’ve spent big to improve an already formidable squad. And if they can land the world’s most coveted striker in Isak on top of that, they will seem fairly unstoppable and will rightly be most people’s favourites. However, I think there are question marks at the other end of the pitch, with the two fullbacks they’ve brought both being known more for their attacking prowess than their defensive nous. And more than anything, I just fear they are due a dip. It’s difficult enough to summon the motivation for another title challenge, let alone with all the emotional trauma they have been through in the post-season.
1st– Arsenal
Arsenal are officially out of excuses. They simply have to win the title this season. There can’t be any blaming the referees, or the lack of a striker, or the ball… Mikel Arteta has to deliver the title or it will be time for them to look for a new manager. In fairness, they did suffer some bad luck with injuries last season, and logic dictates that won’t happen again. A lot of the burden will fall on new striker Viktor Gyokeres, but what will really make the difference is turning draws into wins in tight games, and the goals will also need to come from elsewhere to achieve that. If they can do that, then their league-leading defence should be enough to see them over the line. It’s now or never for them, and perhaps that 1% extra motivation will finally make the difference.
George F Brown 