Premier League Predictions 2023-24

It’s that time again! Christ I’ve missed football this summer; I have honestly not known what to do with myself. We are due to have the most “normal” Premier League season for a good number of years, with no mid-season World Cup and no Covid breaks or delays (we hope!). I’ve deliberately left the predictions as late as I can this year, as last-minute transfers can have such an impact on the prospects of the various sides, though I’m sure there will be plenty more twists and turns before the window shuts on September the 1^st. Here’s how I see this latest instalment of the greatest league in the world playing out…

20^th– Luton

I was so pleased that Luton got promoted as it proves that even in an era of money-dominated ‘superclubs’, anyone can still reach the highest level. We will see Premier League football at the smallest stadium in the competition’s history (yep the one with the terraces in the back gardens etc) and I think Luton can use that to their advantage to shock a few of their more glamorous rivals. However, their squad is the weakest I’ve seen in many years and it would be a genuine miracle if they manage to survive after 38 games. Romance can play a part, but quality will always tell in the end.

19^th– Sheffield United

Sheffield United are a strange addition to the top division this year, as they’re actually suffering from financial uncertainty off the field, which means that they aren’t able to invest and improve the squad as you normally would when getting promoted. The last time they played a Prem season with full fan support, they turned Bramall Lane into a fortress and were the division’s surprise package. Whilst I imagine they’ll be tough to beat, I don’t see a repeat of that achievement this time around.

18^th– Bournemouth

Bournemouth are a real wildcard for me this year. On paper, they seem to have shot themselves in the foot, by sacking the manager that pulled off one of the most underrated escape acts of last year in Gary O’Neill and replacing him with the relatively unknown Andoni Iraola, without significantly improving a fairly weak squad. This will either go one of two ways: Iraola will live up to some of the hype and become the next Pochettino or De Zerbi, or it will prove a disaster and he’ll be gone by Christmas, with a desperate phone call to Big Sam coming too late to stop the bleeding. I’m personally betting on the latter.

17^th– Fulham

Is anyone else getting a strong whiff of second season syndrome?.. I’m sorry Fulham fans, it may feel like I have an agenda against you as I predicted you to go down last year, and now I’m predicting another season of struggle. Fulham were brilliant last year in finishing 10^th on their return to the top flight, making me look a fool in the process, but the underlying numbers showed they were over-performing on a lot of metrics (as promoted teams can sometimes do) and the uncertainty over Mitrovic’s future isn’t helping. If he goes, I don’t see where they’ll get enough goals from to match last season’s comfortable finish and so a relegation battle may be on the cards instead.

16^th– Everton

I mean, does this even need an explanation? This is just where Everton’s level is now, which is a travesty for a club with rich history and lofty ambitions. Squad-wise, they seem to get thinner and thinner every year, but finally made a sensible decision in appointing Sean Dyche. He kept them up on the last day last year and I think his nous and uncompromising, risk-free style will be just enough to keep them up again. You know it’s not going to be pretty though.

15^th– Wolves

Wolves seem to be on a worrying downslide. A few years ago, they looked the most credible threat to the traditional establishment, with their investment in talented (almost exclusively Portuguese) players and back-to-back 7^th placed finishes, including a run in the Europa League. That seems a world away now, with the spending having dried up and their best players moving on. Similarly to Everton, their biggest asset is their manager, with Julen Lopetegui doing a great job in turning their fortunes around last year. If he stays for a full year (and that looks very shaky) they’ll stay up. If he goes early and they don’t pick a sensible replacement, they could emulate Leicester and Southampton and find themselves falling through the trap door.

14^th– Burnley

Burnley are fashionable all of a sudden. Vincent Kompany’s arrival and subsequent steamrolling of the Championship, with a new possession-based and exciting brand of football, has drawn a lot of attention to the Clarets. The Premier League will obviously be a much bigger challenge, but I think Burnley may benefit from a weaker-looking bottom half this year and ride their new momentum to a comfortable mid-table finish. That will only boost Kompany’s reputation further, and how long they can keep hold of the former Man City captain may become an intriguing narrative going forward.

13^th– Brentford

Last season showed a lot of people, myself included, that you should never write off Brentford. The Bees have been brilliant since their promotion to the big time, but this season will pose a unique challenge, with their talisman Ivan Toney banned until January for betting offences. I think they’ll find it tougher for the first half of the season without the 20-goal forward, but the stage is set for Toney to return, Cantona-like, from his ban and lead Brentford comfortably to safety.

12^th– Crystal Palace

If anyone read my reactions at the end of last season, you’ll see I’m sticking with my claim that Palace are the easiest, and therefore dullest, team to predict every year. They have finished between 11^th and 14^th for seven straight seasons and I’m tipping them to make it eight. It will be interesting to see how they cope without Wilf Zaha, but to be honest, Eze and Olise have higher ceilings and should relish having more of the limelight. Plus, whilst he’s not exactly the sexy choice, Roy Hodgson is as close as there is to a guarantee of avoiding relegation.

11^th– Nott’m Forest

Time for the risky prediction! I like to throw one in each year, and whilst the rest of my bottom half is probably pretty similar to most people’s, I’m tipping Forest to be the surprise package and take the mantle as ‘best of the rest’. They just about avoided relegation last year on their return after 20-odd years away, despite a bizarre strategy of signing nearly thirty new first-team players. They’ve been much more reserved this time around, which I think speaks to Steve Cooper finally working out his best team. An exciting front three of Brennan Johnson, Awoyini and Gibbs-White started to click in the final ten games and if they can consistently produce across a whole season, I think Forest can build on, and better, last season’s nervy finish.

10^th– West Ham

Someone might want to tell West Ham they’ve got a gaping hole in their starting eleven, and over a hundred million to do something about it. Here we are, a week before the season’s start, and the Hammers are yet to make a single signing, despite letting inspirational captain Declan Rice leave for Arsenal. This means that, instead of riding the wave of their sensational Europa Conference League triumph, they start the new campaign feeling a bit flat. My prediction is that David Moyes will be the first manager sacked (as he should have gone out on the high of that win in Prague) but that a new manager and those late reinforcements that will surely come in over the coming days and weeks will be enough to take them to a top-half finish, which is really where they should be.

9^th– Brighton

It seems more apparent than usual that this year’s division is already split into two, or more accurately into a top 9 and a bottom 11. I don’t think any of the teams I’ve already mentioned will reach any higher than tenth and I don’t think anyone from this point will stoop below ninth. Its these two mini-divisions that are interesting. And I’m going with everyone’s second team, Brighton, first, but only because I hope and think that they’ll have a long run in the Europa League and will therefore have to de-prioritise certain Prem games over the course of the season. You could use the default “rebuilding” excuse considering they’ve once again lost key players, but that just doesn’t seem to apply to the Seagulls. I expect them to continue to thrill and shock the big boys, but matching last season’s sixth place may be a step too far.

8^th– Tottenham Hotspur

Is any side going into this season in a bigger state of chaos? Spurs have once again changed manager, appointing the impressive but unproven at the top level Ange Postecoglou. Harry Kane could well leave before their first game, and they still haven’t strengthened in key areas. They’ve made some good additions, like James Maddison, but they still seem way short of their rivals and if Kane was to leave without an adequate replacement, it feels like the sky could well and truly cave in. The only silver lining for Tottenham fans is that the last time I predicted Spurs to finish eighth, they appointed Antonio Conte mid-season and stormed into the Champions League. Good omens is the best I can offer at this point.

7^th– Aston Villa

Aston Villa have seemed to be threatening to break through to the elite for a few years now, with a string of impressive and ambitious transfer windows. The final piece, as it always is, was finally appointing the right manager and they’ve certainly got that now with Unai Emery. His remarkable record since his appointment in October, coupled with a few more big signings in Pau Torres, Youri Tielemans and Moussa Diaby, means that Villa are equipped to push for the Champions League this time around. However, they will surely go all out to win the Conference League, inspired by the effect that competition had on West Ham, and this may mean, like Brighton, they have to pick and choose their best eleven during the season’s closing stages and allow their rivals with bigger squads to squeeze in above them.

6^th– Chelsea

Never have I gone into a season less sure of where to place my own team. The scale of Chelsea’s disaster last term means that all bets are off, with the mother of all rebuilds having taken place over the summer, and with some glaring holes still apparent in the starting eleven. My head tells me that there is too big a gap to close on last season’s top five, who have all strengthened again. My heart tells me that we have made some sensible decisions (at last!) in appointing Pochettino and in getting rid of the dead wood and bringing in some young and hungry replacements. Time will tell, but I’m using Pochettino’s first season at Spurs as a good reference point: a steady but unspectacular Europa League qualification, before peaking in seasons two and three. Let’s be honest, it can’t possibly be any worse than last time.

5^th– Newcastle United

The big six is now, at the very least, a big seven. Newcastle are back in the Champions League at the first real attempt and they’re not going anywhere. Their spending has made a mockery of the scattergun expectations of the Saudi ownership, with further steady and sensible additions this summer (Todd Boehly could learn a thing or two!) and Eddie Howe has somehow outperformed some fairly high expectations as manager. I personally can’t wait to see the atmosphere at midweek European games at St James’s and once they have the taste for it, they’ll want to make it an annual event. The only caveat here is that I think they capitalised on a bad year for the traditional contenders last year, with Tottenham, Chelsea and (to a certain extent) Liverpool having a complete nightmare. That won’t happen this time and so the Magpies may have to take a small step back, before their inevitable next leap forwards.

4^th– Manchester United

The placing of the next three teams was the hardest part of this set of predictions, and they could be rearranged in a different order very easily, but I’m hesitantly putting United fourth for now. For once, I actually really rate their transfer business: Onana is a huge upgrade in every modern goalkeeping department, Mount broke my heart by leaving Chelsea and remains so underrated by the wider football public and Holjund looks a future superstar. Erik Ten Hag also proved last year that they finally have the right man in charge. The only negative I can come up with is that their forward line still looks weak compared to the three I’ve put above them. Maybe Holjund will solve that issue in time, but he looks a signing for the next two or three years, rather than the here and now, and so United will once again have to settle for close-but-not-close-enough this season.

 3^rd– Liverpool

My record in predicting Liverpool is abysmal. Two years ago, I predicted them to just about scrape Champions League, and they ended up two results away from doing the Quadruple. Last year, I had them as league winners and they preceded to have a disaster for most of the season, only salvaging 5^th place with a last-minute resurgence.  They’re clearly going through a transition, losing key figures like Milner, Henderson, Fabinho and Firmino, but I love the signings they’ve made and their forward line is still arguably the best in the league. They will undoubtedly be better than last year; the question is whether they can improve enough to again be City’s one true nemesis.

2^nd– Arsenal

When the hell did Arsenal get good again? For nearly the entirety of my football-watching life, the Gunners have been the most entertainingly predictable side: showing glimpses of potential before ultimately missing out where it matters. And then, out of nowhere, Mikel Arteta conjured up a title-challenging side last season, and has improved it further with the addition of Rice, Timber and (maybe…) Havertz. The question marks remain over their mentality in the high-pressure matches, but I would point out that there’s no shame in being second best to the best side in Premier League history. And I’m afraid that’s where I see their destiny once again. They’re really good, but just not as good as…

1^st– Manchester City

I made the mistake last time of daring to pick someone else as title winners, and I was taught a harsh lesson. City are this generation’s equivalent of Liverpool in the 70’s/80’s and United in the 90’s. The dominant, metronomic force, where it takes something truly remarkable (a la Liverpool’s 99 points in 19-20) to overcome them. Even more worrying is that they’ve finally laid their Champions League demons to rest by completing the treble in Istanbul. As insane as it seems, I think Erling Haaland will actually improve on last season’s goal tally and despite some key departures, Guardiola will probably once again develop a new tactical innovation that catches everyone else out. The sad reality is that the Premier League’s other contenders all know they are waiting for Pep to leave before they can finally topple the goliath that his City have become.