Another one bites the dust. The 2022-23 Premier League season is officially in the books. And with the World Cup taking place in the middle, this has felt like a longer, more arduous campaign than most, or maybe that’s just because I’m a Chelsea fan…
The final day lacked some of the drama from the previous campaign, but there have been so many memorable moments throughout the last ten months. Thomas Tuchel and Antonio Conte just about having time for an iconic scrap before both left their respective jobs; Erling Haaland’s inhuman early season scoring spree, including three consecutive home hat-tricks; a below-par Liverpool somehow beating an improved Man United 7-0; Arsenal’s excellent surprise title charge and then subsequent bottling; Spurs putting in an entry for the Spursiest moment of all in going 5-0 down in 20 minutes against Newcastle and then topping it a week later by coming back from 3-0 down at Anfield only to immediately concede a late winner.
This has also been a season that has some claim to be the most unpredictable of all, with some startling fluctuations in form from both the division’s most well-known and lesser-heralded sides, whilst the most manic of all managerial merry-go-rounds hasn’t helped in maintaining a more traditional order of things.
So yes, I got my excuse in early. It was a really hard one to predict. Perhaps you’ll bear that in mind as I shamefully reflect on my predictions from back in July…
20th– Southampton
My prediction- 19th
I said: “My prediction is that they have a difficult start, panic and fire Ralph Hasenhuttl and then end up even worse off.”
How it turned out: Boom! What a start. And some long-awaited vindication as I’ve actually been calling this for a few years. The Saints had been circling the drain for a while and made the exact mistake I foresaw: sacking Hasenhuttl and replacing him with the hopelessly out-of-his-depth Nathan Jones. A stern lesson that investing in inexperience, both in terms of players and managers, rarely pays off.
19th– Leeds
My prediction- 16th
I said: “It feels like it could either be a disaster or a much-needed change, but for now I’ll say they’ll just about avoid the drop.”
How it turned out: It was a disaster as it turned out. Again a case of the grass not always being greener when it comes to sacking managers. Though in truth, Leeds have had a complete identity crisis since Bielsa left, and without his insane brand of football, they have been exposed as nothing more than a bang-average team who concede far too many goals.
18th– Leicester
My prediction- 8th
I said: “I think a lot of people are sleeping on Leicester this year. I think they still have the best attack outside of the big six. Barnes, Vardy and Maddison, with Daka to come in, is firepower the other teams around them can only dream of.”
How it turned out: Oh Christ. And this is where the laughable predictions begin. In fairness, Leicester being relegated was a surprise to most, after a number of seasons of being the ‘best of the rest’ outside of the top six, but there were definitely some worrying signs going into this campaign that I seemed to ignore. My comment on their attacking powers was valid, it was just that their defence was so shambolic that it still wasn’t enough to save them.
17th– Everton
My prediction- 15th
I said: “I think their season hinges on if Dominic Calvert-Lewin can stay fit. If he does, you’d think he would score enough to keep them clear of danger. If he doesn’t, then they may finally fall down that dreaded trap door of relegation.”
How it turned out: Well, Calvert-Lewin didn’t stay fit and they just about stayed up by the skin of their teeth. Their current role as annual relegation battlers is the product of endless bad decisions at boardroom level, but they might have finally made a good one in appointing Sean Dyche. I’m not sure anyone else could have kept this sorry mob up.
16th– Nott’m Forest
My prediction- 14th
I said: “I like to throw in one bold prediction each year and here is this year’s version. Nottingham Forest to stay up, and comfortably so. I think they’ll basically do a Brentford and spend most of the year comfortably in mid-table, rather than scrapping for their lives at the bottom.”
How it turned out: This was a real rollercoaster watching this prediction play out. At first, it looked another disaster as they just wouldn’t stop signing players and seemed to have pulled a classic “too many cooks”, before an upturn in form at the start of 2023 began to make my claim look feasible. And then they got dragged into the relegation battle once again, but found a final burst of form right when it mattered to ultimately avoid the drop.
15th– Bournemouth
My prediction- 20th
I said: “And for me, the weakest of the three (promoted sides) looks to be Bournemouth. Unfortunately for the Cherries, I fear their Premier League return may be short-lived.”
How it turned out: Arguably the surprise package of the season and certainly one of the most underrated managerial performances from Gary O’Neil. Everyone had written Bournemouth off, with a weak-looking squad and a dreadful start that included a 9-0 thrashing at Anfield. And yet they recovered superbly and ended up surviving relatively comfortably in the end.
14th– West Ham
My prediction- 7th
I said: “I don’t see them finishing any higher than seventh, which is why they should go all out to win the Europa Conference League.”
How it turned out: Well they didn’t finish any higher than seventh! This was a bad prediction with some really solid reasoning behind it as I basically explained that the Hammers should put their energy into winning the Conference League, which they have done, but at the complete cost of their previously solid league form. Still, if they can defeat Fiorentina in Prague, the mid-season struggles will all be worth it.
13th– Wolves
My prediction: 11th
I said: “It’s been a strange old summer for the old gold, after a promising first campaign under Bruno Lage. Like Brighton, they’ll be absolutely fine, but might regret not kicking on when they had the chance.”
How it turned out: I guess this is kind of right? Wolves’ season was another that started awfully under Lage and interim boss Steve Davis, but hiring Julen Lopetegui after the World Cup was an astute appointment and he took them to comfortable safety in the end. They should heed the warning of what has happened to Leicester though, as the second you stop moving forwards in this league, you start falling fast.
12th– Chelsea
My prediction: 4th
I said: “Based on squad depth, the Blues are still the side best placed to push Liverpool and City, but a rejigged defence and possible change in formation might mean its still too soon for a proper title challenge.”
How it tuned out: I mean, where do I start? I’m not going to go on forever as I’ve already written separate blogs at different stages of Chelsea’s disastrous ‘annus horribilis’, but the best way to sum it up is that this prediction went through various different stages over this season: from overly-optimistic to misjudged to pitiful to frankly laughable. A fitting guide to the fortunes of the club itself.
11th– Crystal Palace
My prediction- 13th
I said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a push for European Football this year. It’s just the strength of their squad that might hold them back, as if Zaha gets injured, you wonder where the creativity and goals will come from.”
How it turned out: Again, not bad, but Palace are the easiest side to predict year in year out. Top of the bottom half. Never anywhere near the European race but never looking in danger of relegation either. That’s possibly an unfair appraisal of their season as it was only Roy Hodgson’s latest resurrection that inspired their free-flowing improvements in the latter half, but its telling that I’m fairly confident I’ll be putting Palace in exactly the same place come August.
10th– Fulham
My prediction- 18th
I said: “Ah Fulham. Welcome Back! And… see you later. The precedent has been set by their previous two years in the top flight and whilst I must admit I think they will put up more of a fight than they did in those two campaigns, I still think they will fall just short.”
How it turned out: Another one I got badly, badly wrong. I think I was scarred by predicting Norwich to survive the previous year and had got sucked into the memes of those two clubs being in an endless promotion-relegation spin cycle. Instead, Fulham have been great, Marco Silva has proven himself in the top flight and they’ve even showed they are more than a one-man team when Mitrovic has been missing.
9th– Brentford
My prediction- 17th
I said: “Putting them so low this time around is down to two simple factors. Second season syndrome and the lack of Christian Eriksen.”
How it turned out: And… another one. I told you I had a nightmare this year. The logic behind my placing of them as relegation battlers was obviously steeped in football cliches, but the Bees have shown that they are far too well-run to fall victim to those. They’ll have even bigger shoes than Eriksen to fill next year with Ivan Toney being banned for his gambling issues, but I certainly won’t be making the mistake of writing them off again.
8th– Tottenham
My prediction- 3rd
I said: “Conte may be able to turn Spurs into genuine title contenders and even finally win them a trophy. Quite frankly, if he can’t do it with this squad, then no-one can.”
How it turned out: It’s easy to forget, but my view on Spurs ahead of the season was actually a pretty common one. Based off their late surge to the Champions League from the previous campaign and some big-name signings, things seemed to finally be on the up. And then it all spectacularly fell apart. How Harry Kane scored 30 goals for a side this average is anyone’s guess. And god knows who they get in next as manager. They seem to have become football’s ultimate poisoned chalice.
7th– Aston Villa
My prediction- 10th
I said: “It’s a really important season for Villa, and for manager Steven Gerrard, as it feels like both have big ambitions that need to come to fruition sooner rather than later.”
How it turned out: Well, Villa’s ambitions did come to fruition. Gerrard’s certainly didn’t. Aston Villa this season might be the perfect example of how important a good manager is to a club. Unai Emery turned a lifeless side who played the most uninspiring football in the division into a well-oiled machine who stormed to European football. And with Emery’s record in continental competition, they’re surely odds-on to win the Conference League next season.
6th– Brighton
My prediction- 12th
I said: “I still think they’ll be solidly mid-table, but another top-half finish might be too much of an ask for a squad undergoing a minor rebuild.”
How it turned out: Like Brentford, Brighton are another club who laugh in the face of traditional football logic. Sell your best players? Lose your manager after only six games? Only sign unknown youngsters from the world’s untapped markets? Have your best-ever league finish, qualify for Europa League, reach the FA Cup semis and do it all by playing tactically fascinating and eminently watchable football. They are the club of the moment. And they deserve to be.
5th– Liverpool
My prediction- 1st
I said: “My thinking is based on recent history, as I think from a mentality point of view, the motivation of winning the title after coming so close last year is possibly stronger than if you were trying to retain it, as we saw in 2019-20 when Liverpool finally broke their 30-year drought.”
How it turned out: Again, who saw this season coming from the Reds? Considering how bad it was at one stage, they actually did quite well to recover to get fifth, which says it all when a year previous they were not far off a quadruple. They’ll come again, you would think, but there’s no getting away from the fact that my predicted champions barely made it off the starting blocks in the title race.
4th– Newcastle
My prediction- 9th
I said: “It might actually prove to be a smart move to steadily add to the solid foundations Eddie Howe has already managed to build in his short tenure as manager and I think at the very least, they will start the season aiming for Europe, rather than fearing yet another relegation battle.”
How it turned out: It was telling that in the player interviews after Newcastle had clinched Champions League football with a home draw against Leicester, they all mentioned that top ten was a realistic target at the start of the season. They are so far ahead of schedule in terms of the sporting project taking shape on Tyneside and that is all down to the management of Eddie Howe. He doesn’t get the credit he deserves, because of their new and controversial riches, but returning the club to Europe’s top competition constitutes a huge over-achievement.
3rd– Manchester United
My prediction- 5th
I said: “I think it would take one of last season’s top four to undergo a serious drop in form for United to sneak in to the Champions League places, so it will have to be slow and steady progress for Ten Hag in the league, and perhaps a focus on winning a cup instead.”
How it tuned out: Considering how shocking some of my other predictions have been, I’m actually going to give myself some credit here. United have surprised me a bit, but essentially they have benefitted from Liverpool and Chelsea dipping dramatically and they did focus on winning a cup (could even be a double). Ten Hag deserves loads of credit as he inherited a real mess, but the question with United is can they sustain this upwards trajectory? They’ve had a lot of false dawns before.
2nd– Arsenal
My prediction- 6th
I said: “They’ve spent some serious money, but they have a gift for signing players they don’t really need. I may be wrong, but it feels like they may have actually lost ground in the race between the big-boys.”
How it turned out: Don’t mind me, I’m just stuffing my face with the world’s biggest humble pie. Inspired by those signings that apparently they didn’t need, Arsenal embarked on their first serious title charge in a decade and at one point, looked like they might do the unthinkable and actually win the thing. They’ve taken some stick for falling at the final hurdle, but looking back at the predictions of idiots like me shows just how good a season it has been for the Gunners.
1st– Manchester City
My prediction- 2nd
I said: “Even with Haaland joining, I would argue their squad is ever so slightly thinner than in the last few years. I’m almost talking myself out of this prediction as I write it, but just for the sake of a change, I’m going to say City, for once, will have to settle for second.”
How it turned out: I should’ve talked myself out of it. Sometimes the obvious choice is obvious for a reason. And when the reigning champions add the best striker in the world to their ranks, they should have been nailed-on to retain their title. Their dominance is turning the Premier League into a one-horse race and they might earn a further place in history by completing a stunning treble. I’ll be putting them first next time, no doubt about that.
George F Brown 