It’s easy to feel this way after the climax of every Premier League season, but this last campaign really has been one for the ages. The last week, and especially the final day, of nail-biting, thrilling football was surely one of the best finishes ever. The title, the top four, the Europa League and relegation were all still to play for at the very end and there were twists and turns from the first whistle to the last.
Think of the matches and moments we’ve been privileged to witness so far this season. From Cristiano Ronaldo’s spectacular return to Old Trafford; Salah’s consecutive goal-of-the-season contenders against City and Watford; Newcastle’s Saudi Takeover and rejuvenation under Eddie Howe; the thrashings like Chelsea 7-0 Norwich and City 7-0 Leeds or, you know, anytime anyone played Manchester United…; the thrillers like Liverpool’s visits to Tottenham, Chelsea, Brentford and City (no coincidence the Reds are involved in nearly all the season’s best games); the emotional return of Christian Eriksen and the crucial role he played in the Bee’s superb season; Everton’s dramatic safety-clinching comeback against Crystal Palace and Frank Lampard celebrating on a roof. And finally, Manchester City putting their fans through emotional torture on the final day yet again before securing the title with an epic, extraordinary five-minute turnaround.
I last wrote on football before the campaign started, foolishly setting out my predictions: https://georgefbrown.wordpress.com/2021/08/10/premier-league-predictions-2021-22/. Now, it is the nature of the game that doing this is inevitably going to end up with you looking foolish, but I’m prepared to face my failings head on. So, here is my review of every team’s Premier League campaign and an embarrassing reflection on my misguided opinions nearly twelve months earlier…
20th– Norwich
My Prediction- 14th
I said: “Norwich will do the best of all the promoted sides in my opinion. I think they’ve copied the Burnley method of going up, not over-spending and accepting relegation and then ensuring they’re best placed for a successful return.”
How it turned out: Christ this is a bad start. You can see the logic in my argument and I think it wasn’t just me that thought they surely couldn’t be as bad as their previous Premier League attempt. And yet they were. It turns out there was no method in place whatsoever. They just recruited horribly and looked out of their depth from the very first game to the last. I hope they don’t bounce back up this time, they just serve to weaken the overall quality of an otherwise exceptional division.
19th– Watford
My Prediction: 16th
I said: “I am expecting them to have sacked their current manager Xisco Munoz by Christmas and for them to experience some humbling defeats along the way but ultimately to just about secure their survival in their first year back.”
How it turned out: Well, I got one thing right! Though predicting Watford to sack a manager is like predicting it will be chilly in December. They definitely experienced some humbling defeats along the way as well, but despite three different managers, they did not secure their survival and to be honest, never really looked like getting close either. One joy has been seeing Roy Hodgson gloriously expose the flaw in Watford’s continual managerial merry-go-round; if you treat your managers as expendable, they won’t even pretend to give a shit about the club in return. Again, like Norwich, no-one will be sad to see them go.
18th– Burnley
My Prediction: 17th
I said: “By all normal measures, Burnley should once again be favourites for relegation. They’ve not signed anyone of note, have a wafer-thin squad and a lack of genuine quality. And yet it’s foolish to write off Sean Dyche’s Clarets.”
How it turned out: Close enough! This is definitely worth a half-mark. Burnley struggled all season really and ultimately the caveat I mentioned was proved redundant as they were no longer “Sean Dyche’s Clarets” by the end. And so ends an iconic era of uncompromising, ugly, ‘Brexit-ball’ football.
17th– Leeds
My Prediction: 7th
I said: “Here is my surprise package of the season, though I’m not even sure it’s that much of a surprise.”
How it turned out: Okay, this is as bad as it gets. I don’t think the general consensus was that Leeds would be in a relegation battle before the season began, but I don’t think many were stupid enough to put them as high as seventh! Above Tottenham! What was I thinking! A mixture of poor recruitment, Bielsa’s stubborn refusal to adapt his risky style and in fairness a large amount of bad luck and an endless injury list has contributed to a near-disaster of a campaign. Jesse Marsch came in and has just about kept them up, though the fact I seem to only recall Leeds winning games in the last minute says it all about how chaotic and close-run it was.
16th– Everton
My Prediction: 11th
I said: “They are going to have to do well very quickly or the fans will turn on the former Liverpool manager. Uninspiring signings like Andros Townsend and Demarai Gray added to the chaos means that Europe is probably once again out of their reach.”
How it turned out: Europe was most certainly out of their reach! Again, it is really not a surprise that it didn’t work out for Rafa Benitez at Everton, that seemed doomed from the very start. However, I certainly didn’t expect for it to get quite so bad. There seemed a point around early April when it was starting to look nailed-on that Everton would be relegated. In the end, their maniacal home support got them over the line and I’m personally delighted that Frank Lampard has just about saved his plummeting managerial reputation. Where they go from here though is anyone’s guess.
15th– Southampton
My Prediction: 20th
I said: “This may appear a bold choice straight off the bat, but Southampton seem to be following a strict “How to get Relegated” business plan. Whilst I don’t expect them to be quite as bad as recent whipping boys like Norwich and Sheffield United, I think they may well be propping up the table in the end.”
How it turned out: I maybe went a bit too far with my doomsaying for the Saints. They were never going to finish below teams like Norwich and Watford in hindsight and Ralph Hassenhuttl deserves credit for keeping an average squad relatively steady every season. To be honest though, take James Ward-Prowse’s penalties and free-kicks out of this side and they’re a relegation waiting to happen.
14th– Aston Villa
My Prediction: 9th
I said: “They seem to be a club on the rise with astute signings in the transfer market and steady improvement on the pitch. I still think they’ve invested that 100 million (for Jack Grealish) wisely enough to have another successful season and even better last year’s eleventh place finish.”
How it turned out: One of the low-key biggest disappointments of the season. Yes, Grealish left and that was always going to leave a hole but they also threw significant money at the problem. I thought the sacking of Dean Smith was harsh and after huge initial promise, they fizzled out under Steven Gerrard. Need to do much better next year.
13th– Brentford
My Prediction: 19th
I said: “It’s always good to see a club that attempts to do things differently and a side that plays good, attacking football do well. However, that is where the good will ends as I think even Brentford fans would admit they’ve got a challenge to extend their Premiership journey beyond one year.”
How it turned out: I’m genuinely thrilled I got this one wrong. What a breath of fresh air Brentford have been this season. From the atmospheres generated at the big games under the lights at the new Brentford Community Stadium to their hybrid mixture of pleasant, free-flowing passing with scrappy, get-the-big-men-up tactics. From Ivan Toney being really good at penalties to Thomas Frank being ridiculously, madly optimistic and honest in interviews. And of course Eriksen, who went from feel-good story to arguable signing of the season.
12th– Crystal Palace
My Prediction: 18th
I said: “The main reason the Eagles have been such a steady mid-table side in recent years is down to the underrated management of Roy Hodgson and now he has been replaced by Patrick Vieira, whose own managerial record is limited and patchy at best, I don’t expect them to be quite as tough-to-beat. Throw in the number of experienced players who have left or out of contract and I think Palace’s lengthy stay in the top league may come to an end.”
How it turned out: Palace, for me, have been the surprise package. I wasn’t alone in questioning the Vieira appointment but it’s proved to be inspired, bettering Hodgson’s points, goals and goals conceded totals and getting them to a FA Cup semi-final to boot. They’ve replaced those “experienced players who have left or are out of contract” with brilliant, young signings like Marc Guehi and Michael Olise. Chelsea will take Conor Gallagher back next season though, thank you very much!
11th– Newcastle
My Prediction: 15th
I said: “They’ll still have too much to go down. Keep Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximim fit and they’ll score enough to secure a good few wins along the way. Which will no doubt keep Steve Bruce in a job and ensure the fans keep moaning. I could probably copy and paste this for next year as well.”
How it turned out: I’m not even disappointed at this prediction. For Newcastle, the entire narrative of the club altered when Mike Ashley finally sold to its new mega-rich Saudi owners. Though that shouldn’t gloss over the exceptional job Eddie Howe has done in moving them completely clear of relegation trouble. Yes, he had money to spend in January but it was still mainly a bang-average team he inherited. I know one thing for sure: I won’t be predicting Newcastle to finish fifteenth next season now!
10th– Wolves
My Prediction: 12th
I said: “I would argue Wolves are the toughest team to call before this season kicks off. I don’t know much about their new coach Bruno Lage and thus they could either revel in a much-needed change and push for Europe again or get even worse and slide towards a relegation battle.”
How it turned out: Well, I hedged my bets massively with that prediction and it paid off! In the end, tenth position is possibly even a disappointment for Wolves, considering they spent a large chunk of the season seriously pushing for European places. Bruno Lage has proven himself to be a shrewd tactician and they’re the kind of team who give everyone a game, but their lack of goals has prevented them from getting any higher.
9th– Brighton
My Prediction: 13th
I said: “Oh Brighton. Every year I want to put them higher up, as I think nearly everything is in place for them to be a successful and consistent Premier League side. And yet they adamantly refuse to address their most obvious issue: their lack of a proven goal-scorer. Until then, I think it will be much of the same: they’ll consistently be near the top of possession and expected goals stats and yet they’ll still find ways to lose games they should win comfortably.”
How it turned out: I’m actually gutted with my prediction of 13th as I should have backed my gut a bit more with Brighton, they’ve threatened to be a top-ten side for a while and this year they’ve finally achieved it. All of the doubts I expressed are still completely valid, they still miss too many chances. But Graham Potter is the most underrated manager in the league and they’re also a good watch every week so it’s difficult not to be pleased for the Seagulls.
8th– Leicester
My Prediction: 5th
I said: “They still look the team best placed to challenge the top four of last season and I would really love them to finally break their duck after consecutive near misses.”
How it turned out: For Leicester this season, it was a case of a team just running out of steam. The side that had achieved back-to-back fifth placed finishes and an FA Cup win was always going to go past its peak at some point and so it proved. Key injuries didn’t help them; as soon as Vardy and Fofana returned at the end of the season, their form improved dramatically. Neither did their simply woeful record at defending set pieces, the opposition getting a corner was like getting a penalty against the Foxes. Now you’d expect key players like Tielemans to move on and a rebuild to happen in the summer. You just wonder if they’ll forever kick themselves that they didn’t reach the Champions League when they had the chance.
7th– West Ham
My Prediction: 10th
I said: “After their best season in a generation last year, unfortunately it would seem that the only way is down for West Ham. The lack of major transfer activity and the added demands of weekly European Football will mean that repeating the sixth-place finish should prove too much of an ask.”
How it turned out: Well, the position was wrong but my reasoning was actually pretty spot on when it came to predicting West Ham’s season. Ultimately, the demands of Thursday-Sunday football on a small squad did prove too much, both in terms of finishing sixth again and in actually trying to win the Europa League. However, still a brilliant season and they’re definitely the best side outside the traditional top six. Winning the Europa Conference League should be a very realistic goal next season.
6th– Man United
My Prediction: 3rd
I said: “Have United finally clawed their way back to the top of English football? They’re certainly as close as they have been for the past seven years, with the additions of Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane to a squad that finished second last season surely meaning they are due a more sustained title challenge this time around.”
How it turned out: I mean the joke is not on me here, it’s on United themselves. Not only did they get absolutely nowhere near the top four, let alone the title, but they’re surely the worst ever team to even finish sixth. Six consecutive away losses to finish, beaten 9-0 on aggregate by Liverpool and conceding four away to City, Brighton, Leicester and Watford (Watford!). Lowest points tally in the Premier League era, a goal difference of zero at the end and some of the most pathetic performances I’ve ever seen from a football team. The only silver lining is that under Erik Ten Hag, surely they can’t possibly get any worse.
5th– Arsenal
My Prediction: 6th
I said: “Not having any European Football for the first time in decades might be a blessing in disguise as they can purely focus on the league and I like the summer signings of White and Lakonga, with more potentially yet to come. Arteta really needs to achieve something this season to finally prove his worth, but I still think there is too big a gap to bridge for them to get into the Champions League places.”
How it turned out: I’m taking this as another half-mark. I knew Arsenal would do better than the previous seasons as the squad improved and they only had one competition to focus on, but even in their best moments this season, there was always this lingering feeling that they’d crack when the pressure was on. Losing the top four slot to Tottenham in the way they did is going to have done some damage. Similar to Leicester from the last couple of years, you wonder if they’ve just missed their big chance.
4th– Tottenham
My Prediction: 8th
I said: “This is very much a compromise of a prediction. Should a certain talismanic striker leave, I honestly think that Spurs, title contenders only a few years ago, might struggle to make the top ten. Should he stay and get back to being the best striker in the league, they’ll have an outside crack at the top four.”
How it turned out: Well, I’m going to get my excuses in early here. Had I known that Kane was going to stay and even more importantly, had I know Antonio Conte was going to replace the hapless Nuno as manager, there was no way I would have predicted Spurs to finish as low as eighth. Conte is in the very top tier of managers and as soon as he came in, Spurs had a chance. It’ll be a really interesting summer for Tottenham now: either they back the Italian in the transfer market and allow him to build a team that might actually challenge for trophies or they’ll mess it up and he will leave in a strop as he eventually does with every side he manages.
3rd– Chelsea
My Prediction: 2nd
I said: “Their squad depth is second only to City’s and they have added one of Europe’s top strikers in re-signing Romelu Lukaku. If he can finish some of the chances that went begging last season, the Blues will hope to follow up their victory over City in the European final by taking their league title off them as well.”
How it turned out: By no means Chelsea’s worst season since I started supporting them, but definitely the most disappointing. From being in a three-horse title race until early January to finishing nearly twenty points behind City and Liverpool. Throw in the two cup final defeats on penalties and the heart-breaking loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League and the season ended up a massive damp squib. The sanctions on Abramovich and the takeover negotiations were obviously an unhelpful distraction, but the moment things really seemed to fall apart was when Lukaku gave ‘that’ interview in December. Instead of being the striker to make the difference in a team that missed too many chances, he ended up being the league’s biggest flop.
2nd– Liverpool
My Prediction: 4th
I said: “Liverpool’s 2020-21 campaign was so completely bizarre, that you can take practically nothing from it. Mo Salah will score twenty plus goals because that’s what Mo Salah does, but I think the Champions League and Premier League winning side is just beginning to edge past its best and securing a top four spot will be a more realistic target this time around.”
How it turned out: I was right in thinking you couldn’t take anything from their 2020-21 campaign. I just didn’t know how much of an outlier that season was in terms of Liverpool’s true level. Fast forward a year and they’ve hit 90+ points again in the league as well as reaching three cup finals, winning two with one still up for grabs. They’re an amazing side that, with the additions of Konate and Diaz, looks like it’s actually been refreshed and gone up a level again. And yet, they still didn’t win the league…
1st– Manchester City
My Prediction: 1st
I said: “The best by miles last season have added Britain’s most expensive footballer to their already impressive ranks and may yet add England’s captain as well. That would arguably provide them with the most formidable squad English football has ever seen and with Pep Guardiola in charge, the relentless drive for success is not likely to stop any time soon. It says it all about City’s strength that even retaining the Premiership title may not be considered a success if they still fall short in Europe. That will be the real test once again.”
How it turned out: Fittingly, the only prediction I got exactly right was the Champions. Not that it took a genius to see that one coming. They’re a genuine winning machine and despite the fact that they seem to enjoy putting their fans through complete emotional torture on the final day of the season, they yet again pulled off a famous recovery. However, I had to get in my line about “falling short in Europe” as that is perhaps my best bit of foresight of all. They’re fitting Champions once again and one of the best sides of the entire Premier League era, but a team that’s as good as they are can’t keep falling at the final hurdles in Europe. It remains their holy grail.
George F Brown 